The Economics of Recursive Self-Improvement [pdf] | Hacker News
We find that the condition is met if a one-unit increase in AI model capabilities results in at least 15% higher AI R&D pro ductivity. A rough back-of-the-envelope calculation based on reported AI engineer uplift suggests this return has been around 9% since the launch of coding agents. This number is below the model-implied threshold, suggesting we are not experiencing a self-sustaining acceleration." And the source of this data seems to be self-reported productivity gains from surveys: 1.4–2X in METR’s survey of technical workers (Becker, 2026). A bit flimsy basis but an interesting paper nonetheless. Likewise, it is obvious that gravity exists, but a simple model that explains where it comes from (in quantum terms) would be a big breakthrough iff it came with plausibly testable implications that could be tested via experiment. because people have other ideas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity In a weak sense, singularities are common and should be expected every