Dario probably doesn't believe in superintelligence — LessWrong
Epistemic status: I think the headline claim is true, and that the evidence within is actually quite strong in a bayesian sense, but don't think the post itself is very well written or particularly interesting. But I had to get 500 words out! I think the 2013 conversation is interesting reading as a piece of history, separate from the top-level question, and recommend reading that. I think many people have a relationship with Anthropic that is premised on a false belief: that Dario Amodei believes in superintelligence. What do I mean by "believes" in superintelligence? Roughly speaking, that the returns to intelligence past the human level are large, in terms of the additional affordances they would grant for steering the world, and that it is practical to get that additional intelligence into a system. There are many pieces of evidence which suggest this, going quite far back. In 2013, Dario was one of two science advisors (along with Jacob Steinhardt) that Holden brought along to a d