Simply locate yourself
Imagine I offer you the following bet: I'll roll a fair ten-sided die. If it comes up 1-9, you win a million dollars. If it comes up 0, you lose $10,000. (If you're significantly richer or poorer than the median person, adjust the numbers up or down accordingly, such
Imagine I offer you the following bet: I'll roll a fair ten-sided die. If it comes up 1-9, you win a million dollars. If it comes up 0, you lose $10,000. (If you're significantly richer or poorer than the median person, adjust the numbers up or down accordingly, such that winning is very great and losing hurts a lot, but is manageable.) Imagine that you take the bet, because those odds are ridiculously in your favor. Now imagine that I roll the die, and you watch it rolling, and rolling, and rolling, until it starts to settle, and then it settles… on 0. Imagine the sinking feeling you might ge
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related reading
- What If You Could Do It All Over? | The New Yorkernewyorker.com
- Multiverseen.wikipedia.org
- The Lifespan Dilemma — LessWronglesswrong.com
- Thoughtsn.cohomology.group
- The Hour I First Believed | Slate Star Codexslatestarcodex.com
- How to Seem (and Be) Deep — LessWronglesswrong.com
- Chapter 4: Living in an Inadequate World | Inadequate Equilibriaequilibriabook.com
- default statesreading.supply
- Thinking in Bets - by Annie Duke | Derek Siverssive.rs
- The Yale Review | David M. de León: "All at Once, the Multiverse Is…yalereview.org
- A Reconception of Destinyorbistertius.substack.com
- Probabilities are not the right concept — LessWronglesswrong.com