The Most Dangerous Fiction: The Rhetoric and Reality of the AI Race by Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh :: SSRN
Are the US and China locked in a race to artificial general intelligence (AGI) and global strategic dominance? Through analysis of policy documents, public statements, and industry developments from 2017-2025, this chapter traces the emergence of the 'AI race' narrative. It distinguishes between general AI competition and the more consequential claim that China is racing toward AGI—a threshold that proponents argue could enable permanent strategic advantage. It critically evaluates the evidence for Chinese pursuit of AGI, finding limited support for claims of a concentrated state-led effort. The analysis reveals how the ‘AI race’ narrative has been used in the US to justify accelerated AI development and reduced regulatory oversight, despite rhetoric from Chinese officials calling for cooperation and safety to be prioritized. The chapter argues that the narrative functions as a potentially self-fulfilling prophecy that could accelerate dangerous race dynamic while undermining prospects