Deep Dive: Prediction Markets

Prediction markets have grown to over $6 billion in weekly trading volume: more than 100x in just over 24 months. But with that growth comes a new set of questions...

Before the 2024 election, prediction markets were primarily a niche curiosity with weekly trading volumes hovering around $50 million. Today, prediction markets have over $6 billion in weekly trading volume: more than 100x in just over 24 months. The 2024 presidential election marked the move of prediction markets into the mainstream. The two largest prediction market platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, saw over $4.2B in trading volume on the election event alone. While traditional polling remained largely static within a margin of error, prediction markets reacted to new information in…