The Logical Fallacy of Generalization from Fictional Evidence — LessWrong
When I try to introduce the subject of advanced AI, what’s the first thing I hear, more than half the time? “Oh, you mean like the Terminator movies / The Matrix / Asimov’s robots!” And I reply, “Well, no, not exactly. I try to avoid the logical fallacy of generalizing from fictional evidence.” Some people get it right away, and laugh. Others defend their use of the example, disagreeing that it’s a fallacy. What’s wrong with using movies or novels as starting points for the discussion? No one’s claiming that it’s true, after all. Where is the lie, where is the rationalist sin? Science fiction represents the author’s attempt to visualize the future; why not take advantage of the thinking that’s already been done on our behalf, instead of starting over? Not every misstep in the precise dance of rationality consists of outright belief in a falsehood; there are subtler ways to go wrong. First, let us dispose of the notion that science fiction represents a full-fledged rational attempt to f