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Predictions for 2026 - prinz

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In December 2024, the best reasoning model was OpenAI’s o1, a toy reasoning model that wasn’t even particularly proficient at using tools. By September 2025, OpenAI’s unreleased general reasoning models had won gold medals on the 2025 International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO), the 2025 International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI), and the 2025 International Collegiate Programming Contest (ICPC) World Finals. Another unreleased OpenAI model won second place in the AtCoder World Finals, working fully autonomously without human intervention for the entire 10 hours of the competition. And coding agents - including, in particular, Claude Code - have taken the world of coding by storm, while also meaningfully accelerating the pace of AI research at the frontier labs. We have also begun to see glimpses of AI meaningfully contributing to work in fields other than coding. Starting in late Q3 2025, I began using GPT-5.x Pro for legal research and analysis, and am now finding it absolutely essentia

Predictions for 2026 prinz Dec 22, 2025 47 6 6 Share 2025 was a year of stunningly fast AI progress. In December 2024, the best reasoning model was OpenAI’s o1 , a toy reasoning model that wasn’t even particularly proficient at using tools. By September 2025, OpenAI’s unreleased general reasoning models had won gold medals on the 2025 International Mathematics Olympiad (IMO) , the 2025 International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) , and the 2025 International Collegiate Programming Contest (ICPC) World Finals . Another unreleased OpenAI model won second place in the AtCoder World Finals , workin

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