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Scenario planning — Gordon Brander

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Scenario planning is a way of thinking about the future. It's not about predicting, but about imagining more effectively. The basic idea is this: By identifying what is changing, and what isn't, you have discovered a pivot point. You can start to think usefully about the space of plausable futures. It's a simple process that produces surprising insights. My favorite thing about scenario planning is that I always come away thinking differently about the present. As you make a list of major stakeholders, driving forces and uncertainties, you'll start to think differently about the problem space you're exploring. Where the surprises happen is in the unexpected lateral connections that surface between forces. These "nodal points" are where change is likely to happen in rapid and non-linear ways. Mini narrative scenarios are a great way to capture these confluences. Make note of: Major stakeholders are important to identify, because incumbents will either resist or benefit from change. Disr

Scenario planning is a way of thinking about the future. It's not about predicting, but about imagining more effectively. The basic idea is this: When we talk about "the future" we naturally imagine a linear extrapolation from the present. This is a good way to be wrong. The world doesn't do linear. Change typically follows an exponential S-curve. Dramatic, unexpected breaks in continuity ("Black Swans") throw things off track. You can't predict the future, but you can identify driving forces of change that are present in the present. You can also identify what isn't changing. (See pace…

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